Sealladh Mìosail

Unsettled weather at times for the rest of this week with spells of heavy rain mainly in the northwest. High pressure will build in from the southwest but the full extent of this is uncertain. High pressure is likely in the final days of August and into the beginning of September resulting in above average temperatures, gentle winds and dry conditions. Into September the confidence in the models dips significantly. High pressure will weaken allowing spells of rain to move in from the west. Low pressure may become more dominant in the middle of September, with rain and temperatures close to seasonal averages.

Conditions will remain largely influenced by a strong Atlantic flow for the rest of the week. Areas of low pressure will move to the northwest of the UK allowing Atlantic fronts to sweep in from the west. The focus of the rainfall will always be further west, across Northern Ireland and western Scotland, but heavy spells of rain are likely to move into southeastern areas too at times, mainly on Thursday. Meanwhile high pressure will build in from the southwest. This will bring some sunny interludes as well.

A south westerly to westerly flow will prevail, so temperatures for southern areas will be a few degrees above average for the rest of the week. The peak of the heat is due on Wednesday. Further north temperatures will be much closer to average for the time of year.

High pressure is favoured across the northeast Atlantic and northern Europe bringing settled conditions to much of the UK. Temperatures are expected to remain above average for the time of year but any especially warm weather looks unlikely. The high may weaken and shift further south later in the week allowing for more unsettled weather. There is generally medium confidence in this situation but the confidence reduces towards the end of the week.

Model confidence is low for the first half of September. During the first full week high pressure is likely across the northeast Atlantic with a low pressure pattern over east Scandinavia and northwest Russia. As a result temperatures will remain above the average for all. There could be more rainfall across Scotland and Northern Ireland along with a few windy and cool days.

Into the middle of September temperatures will move closer to the average for the time of year. A seasonal pattern is expected with high pressure favoured in the north-central Atlantic and low pressure across northwest Russia and Scandinavia. However, there is low confidence in this.

We will see if there is any increased confidence in the pattern in early September. We also need to keep a watch on any Atlantic hurricane activity in the coming weeks which may disrupt the pattern.